Posted by Qaz at cpe00055d74fcc8-cm000039cab85f.cpe.net.cable.rogers.com on March 17, 2004 at 14:32:59:
Now I'm sure Mirimax knows more than me, but just looking at the competition, I think it should have stayed on the 19th.
This weekend the big competition is Dawn of the Dead which might take in a lot of viewers but it's mostly the horror crowd and teens. Still lots of room for JG, granted Taking Lives is coming out too but I don't think that will do much and wouldn't take much of JG's audience. The only other factor is Eternal Sunshine which would take a lot away but it's only on 1250 screens and will probably go wider on the 26th, so either weekend it will be about the same.
Now if you look at March 26th, you got Scooby Doo 2, which will probably be the first movie to top Christ...interesting. It will be huge, Ladykillers, Hanks and Coen brothers, right in JG's demographics, and Eternal Sunshine still going, probably really strong with it's star power and most likely great word of mouth.
I know Mirimax is hoping for a long run, but it's way too crowded, the next week you have 4 big releases, then another 4 big releases the week after that. I'm just saying JG could open, in 3rd or 4th this weekend and still do well next weekend in more screens, whereas it might be a solid 5th like Kevin predicts, but will be tough to keep going in April.
My predictions, 8-9 million opening weekend, could be a bit more if they went this weekend, also considering most of the publicity has been for this weekend. Total box office....30 million if it's as good as everyone keeps saying it is, which I'm sure it will be.
Anyhoo, that's my over analysis, I'll be seeing it opening night no matter when it opens.